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Dramatically improve your odds of picking winning teams by putting 30+ years of game data, math, and machine learning on your side.

How do I Interpret Predicted Winner and Probability?

The predicted winner is the team who our model believes has a greater than 50% chance of winning in the given match.

It’s important to note here that we can never be 100% sure when we’re trying to predict the future. The model is based upon a variety of historical factors, and you’ll find it to be fairly accurate, especially when the model probability was confident. We would define confident as having a win probability greater than 90 percent.

When the win probability is nearer the 50% line, it’s going to be a good game and has high upset potential. The model is predicting that these teams are actually fairly evenly matched. When factors are fairly equal going into a match, the unpredictable human nature of sports increases in importance and comes into play.

What is Hoop-A-Nator?

Put simply, Hoop-A-Nator is a tool that uses predictive analytics to forecast which team would win in a matchup.

This collaborative, cross-functional project was created by a team of developers, data engineers, statisticians, and sports fanatics. This machine learning model is based on the Elo rating system, trained through the regular season in order to predict tournament results.

We wanted this to be a way to give back to the data science community, so you can also read details and documentation about the methodology behind our model.

Why the Elo Rating System?

Originally created by Physics Professor Arpad Elo to predict the likely outcome of chess games, the Elo rating system has evolved to calculate the relative skill of competitors, therefore forecasting a likely winner, in all sorts of zero sum games.

We developed our own mathematical model and continually worked to increase the accuracy of the basic Elo foundation. We would like to credit Nate Silver of  FiveThirtyEight, whose NBA Elo calculations were an inspiration for this particular model.


Select two teams in the fields above and find out the likelihood one team would win in a matchup on a neutral court.

Everyone has a different strategy when filling out their tournament bracket. Some people just pick their alma mater, while others make their picks according to their favorite mascots or color schemes. Evolytics relies on data.

While nothing in March is guaranteed, the win probability figures presented by our predictor will give you a good idea of the likely outcome of each game. Evolytics lets you take the hassle out of picking that perfect 5/12 upset by trusting the numbers.

Yes. Predictive analytics will help you get a leg up on your office bracket pool by picking the likeliest winner in each tournament matchup.

Pair teams against their potential matchups throughout the tournament and select your cinderella picks before the first game tips off.

The odds of a perfect bracket are long. Really long.1-in-9,223,372,036,854,775,808-long. That's 9.2 quintillion.

While our tool won't guarantee a perfect bracket, it can certainly improve your odds of winning your bracket pool. All you need to do is pick a team, match them up against all possible opponents during the tournament, and make more informed decisions on your bracket. After that, it’s all up to the basketball gods.

Not at this time. Individual player stats and related items are in the queue for future iterations.

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Evolytics is evolving analytics by inspiring people to use data in ways that make a difference in the world.

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